bayes.markets #32 2e172bf

Call the next candle.

The last candles are on the chart. The next one is hidden. Green or red - and then see how long you can keep it going.

Every candle above already closed: real one-hour Bitcoin candles recorded from 24 July 2026 to 18 August 2026, replayed here in order. That table is the rehearsal - it costs nothing, and your streak is kept in this browser and nowhere else.

Now one that has not closed

The same call, on the five-minute Bitcoin candle forming right now. The price is the real one, taken from Hyperliquid, and the round settles on that exchange's own record of where the candle opened and where it closed. Calling closes ninety seconds in, because the price is on screen and a call made a second before the close would not be a call. What you put on it is play money: a thousand fake dollars, kept in this browser, with nothing to deposit, nothing to withdraw and nothing to win.

Two ways to call it

There is no third call. A candle that closes exactly where it opened has not answered the question, so it settles nothing: your call carries to the next candle and is decided there. On 5,005 real candles that happened 37 times.

Two calls raise the bar, they do not lower it. The split comes out 50.4% green to 49.6% red, so the strategy that knows nothing - always call green - scores 50.4%, and that is the number a player has to beat. A third call used to hold the same baseline down to 42%, which flattered everybody who beat it.

Combos

Eight closed candlesticks followed by three empty dashed slots, each holding a faint outlined candle: green, green, then red. Those are the three calls of one combo.
One entry, three calls, made before any of them close. A combo runs two to five candles in a row and lands only if every leg is right.

Those rungs light up as your run grows, because a run is only worth anything while it is still alive. Each multiplier is one divided by how often a run that long actually happened in the sample, so a combo buys variance and no extra expected score. Runs are also rarer than multiplying the base rate suggests: four in a row came out at 4.7%, against the 6.5% the arithmetic gives.

A leg that closes exactly where it opened does not break the combo and does not complete it either. That leg waits for the next candle, and the combo carries with it.

How this works under the hood

The question this game asks is not one it invented. Polymarket has been running it as a live market on Bitcoin and Solana for months - five minutes, fifteen minutes, four hours, an hour, a day - and every one of those markets settles by a rule that is published before it opens.

The hourly market settles on the same sentence this page is built on: up if the one-hour BTC/USDT candle closes at or above where it opened. The five and fifteen minute markets compare a Chainlink 60-second average price against the price at the start of the window, and the daily ones compare two Binance candles taken a day apart at noon New York time.

That is the part worth knowing, and it is not "the venue is reputable". Nothing there is a judgement call: the feed is named up front, the comparison is arithmetic, and anyone can recompute the answer from public data. The price is what two strangers agreed on in an order book, and no house sets it or takes the other side of it.

It is also a market people genuinely use, which is what keeps the reference meaningful. In the 24 hours to 14 August 2026 the 10 series below traded $18.5M:

That question, being asked right now

Feed: connecting. Pushed as it happens, once a second, and it says so above when it stops. The five minute window is the market's own: a new one opens as each one closes.

Bayes reads those series and scores a call against them. Nothing is staked here at any point, there is no counterparty and no payout - the market is what an answer is checked against, never a bankroll.

The rounds above are a replay of candles that have already closed, and none of it is wired to a live series yet - including the feed in this block. Those figures are that market trading; they do not deal you a card, score a call or move a streak. The honest version of that is: the rates on this page were measured on 5,005 exchange candles, so when rounds are served they will be re-measured on the exact series the rounds are drawn from.

One difference will survive that. Those markets are two-sided and a candle closing exactly where it opened settles up, because a market has to pay somebody and close the book. This game has the same two calls and no book to close, so it does not settle that candle at all: the call carries to the next one. Handing the same call back costs nothing here, and deciding it on a candle that never moved would be a coin flip wearing the result of a read.

Early access

What you just played is a rehearsal on candles that already closed. The real thing keeps score. Sign a message with your wallet to claim your place in line.

It is a signature, not a transaction: no gas, no approval, and nothing moves. Nothing is staked here at any point - a call is scored, never wagered.