bayes.markets

Call the next candle.

You see the candles that just closed. The next one is hidden. Call it green, red or flat - that is the whole game.

Sixteen closed candlesticks, green and red, then an empty dashed slot with a question mark in it where the next candle will be. — Sixteen closed candles, and one that has not printed yet. Everything you get is on the left of the dashed slot.

Three ways to call it

GreenCloses above where it opened.
RedCloses below where it opened.
FlatBody under 0.3x the median body of the last twenty candles.

Flat is not a rounding error: on 5,005 real candles the split comes out near 42% green, 42% red, 16% flat. So always calling the majority gets about 42%, and that is the number a player has to beat - not 33%.

Combos

Eight closed candlesticks followed by three empty dashed slots, each holding a faint outlined candle: green, green, then red. Those are the three calls of one combo. — One entry, three calls, made before any of them close. A combo runs two to five candles in a row and lands only if every leg is right.

2 in a rowx6.2
3x16.8
4x48
5x122

Each multiplier is one divided by how often a run that long actually happened in the sample, so a combo buys variance and no extra expected score. Runs are also rarer than multiplying the base rate suggests: four in a row came out at 2.1%, against the 3.0% the arithmetic gives.

Early access

The game is being built, and there is nothing to play on this page yet. Sign a message with your wallet to claim your place in line.

It is a signature, not a transaction: no gas, no approval, and nothing moves. Nothing is staked here at any point - a call is scored, never wagered.