bayes.markets

The price is the probability.

Bayes is a prediction market for people who would rather read a number than an opinion. Back YES or NO on an outcome; the contract settles at 1 or 0, and what you paid was the odds.

How a contract settles

  • YES
  • NO
A YES probability path drifts from 0.46, dips to 0.31, then resolves at 1.00, while the mirrored NO path resolves at 0.00.
An illustration of the mechanic, not a live market. The two sides always sum to 1, so buying one is selling the other, and at expiry one of them is worth a dollar.

Announcement

We are building it now. There is nothing to trade on this page yet - when the first markets open, they will open here.

Bayes runs on Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcome contracts, so positions are onchain and settlement is automatic. Not affiliated with Hyperliquid.

Early access

Sign a message with your wallet to claim your place in line. It is a signature, not a transaction: no gas, no approval, and nothing moves.